Fig. 2

Predicted trajectory of FEV1 scores and actual scores for a patient with 26 months of NHS data. The conditional predictive distributions at 2, 4, and 6 months after treatment are represented using the black intervals. FEV1 scores observed during the study are in green. The individual FEV1 scores are within the 95% prediction intervals, but the joint probability to observe all 3 occurrences is less than 0.01