Variable | Base-case | One-way | Source | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Low | High | |||
Probabilities | ||||
 Mild to Death | Age-specific mortality for CF population | [3] | ||
 Mild to Pulmonary Exacerbation | 0.3213 | 0.2571 | 0.3856 | [16] |
 Pulmonary Exacerbation in Mild to Death | 0.001 | 0.0008 | 0.0012 | Assumption |
 Pulmonary Exacerbation in Mild to Moderate | 0.0697 | 0.0558 | 0.0837 | |
 No Pulmonary Exacerbation in Mild to Moderate | 0.0307 | 0.0245 | 0.0368 | |
 Moderate to Death | Age-specific mortality for CF population | [3] | ||
 Moderate to Pulmonary Exacerbation | 0.5748 | 0.4599 | 0.6898 | [16] |
 Pulmonary Exacerbation in moderate to Death | 0.001 | 0.0008 | 0.0012 | Assumption |
 Pulmonary Exacerbation in Moderate to Severe | 0.0617 | 0.0493 | 0.074 | |
 No Pulmonary Exacerbation in Moderate to Severe | 0.0279 | 0.0223 | 0.0335 | |
 Severe to Death | Age-specific mortality for CF population | [3] | ||
 Severe to Pulmonary Exacerbation | 0.6794 | 0.5435 | 0.8153 | [16] |
 Pulmonary Exacerbation in severe to death | 0.2174 | 0.1739 | 0.2609 | [18] |
 Transplant to Death | 0.297 | 0.2376 | 0.3564 | [17] |
 Pulmonary Exacerbation in Severe to Transplant | 0.078 | 0.0624 | 0.0937 | [17] |
 No Pulmonary Exacerbation in Severe to Transplant | 0.078 | 0.0624 | 0.0937 | [17] |
 Post-transplant to Death | Calculated year-wise | [19] | ||
Lumacaftor/Ivacaftor: | ||||
 Moderate to Mild without Pulmonary Exacerbation | 0.0935 | 0.0748 | 0.1123 | |
 Severe to Moderate without Pulmonary Exacerbation | 0.5517 | 0.4414 | 0.6621 | |
 Moderate to Mild with Pulmonary Exacerbation | 0.1045 | 0.0836 | 0.1254 | |
 Severe to Moderate with Pulmonary Exacerbation | 0.5455 | 0.4364 | 0.6545 | |
 Relative risk for Pulmonary Exacerbation (Lumacaftor/Ivacaftor vs Placebo) | 0.74 | 0.592 | 0.89 | [5] |
Costs (USD-2016) | ||||
 Lumacaftor/ivacaftor | 188,660.43 | 150,928.34 | 226,392.51 | |
 Mean cost of Pulmonary Exacerbation in Mild | 2575.97 | 2575.97 | 30,949.79 | [13] |
 Mean cost of Pulmonary Exacerbation in Moderate | 8371.90 | 8371.90 | 41,969.47 | [13] |
 Mean cost of Pulmonary Exacerbation in Severe | 52,646.40 | 52,646.40 | 123,385.36 | [13] |
 Mild | 7566.91 | 5121.17 | 30,267.65 | [13] |
 Moderate | 9981.89 | 6709.60 | 39,927.54 | [13] |
 Severe | 17,226.80 | 8688.16 | 68,907.21 | [13] |
 Transplant | 1,056,002.23 | 844,801.78 | 1,267,202.67 | [21] |
 Post-transplant | 87,945.85 (1st year) | 70,356.68 | 105,535.02 | |
86,332.56 (2nd year onwards) | 69,066.05 | 103,599.07 | [22] | |
Utilities | ||||
 Mild | 0.86 | 0.77 | 0.94 | [23] |
 Moderate | 0.81 | 0.72 | 0.89 | [23] |
 Severe | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.7 | [23] |
 Post-transplant | 0.83 | 0.74 | 0.91 | [23] |
 Pulmonary Exacerbation | − 0.17 | − 0.15 | −0.19 | [23] |