Table 1 Results from one-way sensitivity analyses on key model parameters
From: Estimating the budget impact of orphan drugs in Sweden and France 2013–2020
Parameter | Value* | Peak year budget impact as% of total pharmaceutical spend (year) | Peak year budget impact as% of total pharmaceutical spend (year) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sweden | France | ||||
1 | Change in price at loss of IPP | Base | -65% (SE) | 4.1% (2020) | 4.9% (2020) |
-60% (FR) | |||||
Best | -80% | 3.8% (2020) | 4.4% (2020) | ||
Worst | 0% | 5.7% (2020) | 6.4% (2020) | ||
2 | Pharmaceutical annual market growth rate 2012–2020 | Base | 2% | 4.1% (2020) | 4.9% (2020) |
Best | 4% | 3.4% (2018) | 4.2% (2020) | ||
Worst | 0% | 4.9% (2020) | 5.8% (2020) | ||
3 | Success rate for designated OMPs obtaining market authorization approval | Base | Observed trend rate 2008–2012 | 4.1% (2020) | 4.9% (2020) |
Best | 50% of base case rate | 3.3% (2017) | 3.9% (2017) | ||
Worst | Observed trend rate 2000–2005 | 9.0% | 11.0% (2020) | ||
4 | Annual growth in new OMP designations from 2012 | Base | y = 5.7418x - 11452 | 4.1% (2020) | 4.9% (2020) |
Best | 50% < base | 4.0% (2020) | 4.8% (2020) | ||
Worst | 50% > base | 4.2% (2020) | 5.0% (2020) | ||
5 | Average total annual sales of an OMP post-launch (year 1 – year12) | Base | As per Figure 6 | 4.1% (2020) | 4.9% (2020) |
Best | -50% p. a. | 2.0% (2020) | 2.5% (2020) | ||
Worst | +50% p. a. | 8.1% (2020) | 9.9% (2020) | ||